At The Bleeding Edge: Russia vs NATO in Eastern Europe 2020-2025

This theater book aims to model a theoretical conventional conflict between Russia and the NATO alliance in eastern Europe in the early 2020s. This scenario could be an alternative to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an escalation of said conflict, or a campaign conducted upon its conclusion. A core tenet of this book is the time frame being modelled is only the first 30 days of a potential conflict. The predictability of a NATO-Russia conflict drops quickly as the days move forward. Beyond the first month, much of NATO’s heavy units would become available which would noticeably shift the odds. Russia’s casualty count would rise dramatically over these 30 days, a situation that would make a nuclear exchange more likely. Finally, the first month would be the closest to tactical and operational parity the Russians would likely achieve. Compared to the hordes that Russia could unleash on day one, the EFPs are far smaller, with the possible exception of EFP Poland.

This scenario involves Russia invading one or more Baltic states somewhere from 2020-2025. In response, the Enhanced Forward Presence battlegroups in each of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are the first line of defence along with the armed forces of the host countries. Each of these EFPs are given a distinct army list with their own combat teams, reinforcement lists, and unit statistics. The composition of these lists was determined by the presence and likely rotation of NATO formations through the regions. Every NATO nation involved has been modelled to some degree so long as their contribution is tactically relevant.