2023 · (Web published)
“In a dive-bombing attack, it’s not just a case of getting one plane or ten or even fifteen. You’ve got to get them all, you can’t afford to get hit.”
– Lieutenant Commander Elias B. Mott, Gunnery Officer for USS Enterprise
This is a scenario for my ruleset There's The Effing Scheer, and its expansion Striking Effectively First, which allows you to wargame early- to mid-war WW2 naval combat.
One of my favourite parts of wargaming are the what-ifs of history and how on the grand scale of things, so much seemingly comes down to luck. The best laid plans and all that. The Eastern Solomons struck me as an interesting engagement because both sides seemed to share an equal amount of luck, or at times a lack of it. It is almost like Coral Sea all over again.
The Americans start unlucky. They send a third of their carrier force away to refuel as their intelligence tells them they've got enough time until the Japanese offensive towards Guadalcanal will arrive. They are unlucky not to find the Japanese fleet carriers as the one accurate scout report is lost in the ether, and both of their strikes are wasted on secondary targets (though I'm sure the crew of Ryujo may feel differently). The Japanese were lucky enough to get the drop of the Americans, getting Shokaku and Zuikaku into strike range without being detected themselves, and getting the first punch in. American radar sends their CAP intercept up at the wrong altitude and the Japanese bombers attack. They strike first, but not effectively.
Then the luck seems to shift.
